{"calibration_target":false,"cex_central_year":{"independent_consumer_units":10851,"interview_records":19551,"results":{"consumption_proxy_after_tax":{"negative_percent":41.01,"nonpositive_percent":41.01},"consumption_proxy_before_tax":{"negative_percent":34.69,"nonpositive_percent":34.69},"original_cex_total_before_tax":{"negative_percent":39.95,"nonpositive_percent":39.95}}},"cex_pooled":{"independent_consumer_units":26180,"interview_records":58862,"results":{"consumption_proxy_after_tax":{"negative_percent":37.97,"nonpositive_percent":37.97},"consumption_proxy_before_tax":{"negative_percent":33.68,"nonpositive_percent":33.68},"original_cex_total_before_tax":{"negative_percent":38.87,"nonpositive_percent":38.87}}},"checked_utc":"2026-10-04T13:10:14.670672+00:00","comparisons":[{"finding":"Same magnitude; the SCF median falls inside the SHED published band","limitation":"SCF families may finance multiple people or other people's education; SHED asks individual adults about their own education. Not an equality test or a borrower-count benchmark.","measure":"Education debt among debt holders","shed_label":"SHED own-education borrower median range, balance as of July 2022","shed_value":[20000,24999],"site_label":"SCF 2022 family education-debt median, conditional on positive debt","site_value":24500.0},{"difference_percentage_points":17.46,"finding":"Material difference; transaction-account balances do not by themselves measure emergency money available to spend","limitation":"Checking and other transaction accounts may fund committed bills. SHED measures adults' perceived spendable savings; SCF measures family account holdings. Those differences are possible explanations, not a quantified decomposition of the gap. Account balances cannot validate an emergency-readiness claim.","measure":"Liquid resources of at least $500","shed_label":"SHED adults who could cover at least $500 using savings (%)","shed_value":68,"site_label":"SCF 2022 families with transaction accounts of at least $500 (%)","site_value":85.46},{"difference_percentage_points":18.97,"finding":"Material difference; modeled negative remainders are not observed overspending or unpaid-bill rates","limitation":"CEX consumer-unit weights differ from adult weights. It compares annualized income with interview-window spending; SHED asks about one month in October 2022. Durable purchases, transfers, deductions and income timing differ. Central-year and before-tax bridges quantify only the stated CEX choices, not the remaining cross-survey gap.","measure":"Spending above income","shed_label":"SHED adults reporting spending more than income in the prior month (%)","shed_value":19,"site_label":"CEX 2021\u20132023 pool with a negative consumption-proxy remainder (%)","site_value":37.97}],"interpretation":"SHED supports an education-debt magnitude check and challenges hardship/emergency-fund interpretations. It does not validate identical levels, a causal generation claim, or the reconstructed model as a whole. No data were calibrated to force agreement; unresolved cross-survey differences are disclosed.","scf":{"education_debt_conditional_median":24500.0,"independent_families":4595,"positive_education_debt_families_any_implicate":812,"transaction_accounts_at_least_500_percent":85.46},"shed":{"calibration_target":false,"publication":"Federal Reserve Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022, May 2023","reference_year":2022,"source_id":"federal-reserve-shed","sources":{"education":{"college_attendees_still_owe_own_education_percent":21,"own_education_debt_median_max":24999,"own_education_debt_median_min":20000,"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-higher-ed-student-loans.htm"},"expenses":{"expected_pay_all_bills_percent":82,"savings_could_cover_at_least_500_percent":68,"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-expenses.htm","would_pay_400_cash_or_equivalent_percent":63},"income":{"spending_about_same_percent":32,"spending_less_than_income_percent":49,"spending_more_than_income_percent":19,"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-income.htm"}},"universe":"Adults surveyed in October 2022; adult-weighted self-reports, not SCF families or CEX consumer units. Education-loan balance amounts were requested as of July 2022, before the August forgiveness announcement."},"source_id":"federal-reserve-shed","source_sha256":{"config/shed-validation.json":"dbff6d4e9abf220bc6a6cf5a2872b1c9c4f1a306da4ac5376f4b32bd557f1a8c","research/processed/cex-taxsim/consistent-taxes.parquet":"63d7a9deaab618cb5edb63193aef1abb827574a50a16224bf48c524d5e3f1bbe","research/processed/cex/launch-cohorts.parquet":"dca09fd37faa750c33d6927912ff5ca0bbca96ca0194aa8c1b70014d6b17de67","research/raw/scf/2022/SCFP2022.csv":"551e46ba9176a5364d426ddebcea38674b6d0add6aeee6a8bb1df2a2cb914f10","src/export/audit_cash_flow_shape.py":"55cb18dd409c2a57091aa3b032bb69996612b1bb4f12342ebf8fba171078c111","src/export/audit_shed_validation.py":"abfa4656cb039cca3cafef73cdc4547a7f82d7f20b0e6f759884e3e72d812b4f","src/export/cex_component_model.py":"7ea3c3fa409ba69202facfef7e12f6fec70703efb5cab8cfc749dcec4672c8af"},"source_snapshots":{"education":{"bytes":121150,"local_path":"research/reference/federal-reserve/shed-2022-education-2026-10-04.html","sha256":"682694d00a25a2b851f19c971a5585b32cce95840c2d8affc5bc98fdcc6689fe","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-higher-ed-student-loans.htm"},"expenses":{"bytes":121777,"local_path":"research/reference/federal-reserve/shed-2022-expenses-2026-10-04.html","sha256":"0c04399e9c5fc0ae29b3a84c91d76967e6e62d64e57987944e3f24ae7ed85597","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-expenses.htm"},"income":{"bytes":99851,"local_path":"research/reference/federal-reserve/shed-2022-income-2026-10-04.html","sha256":"219e0d874a83acf6072fe9dbc81ee507de875540015d3c1cd3b5f58d70ac3ee4","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-income.htm"}},"status":"independent_source_comparison_not_equality_test"}